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Michel Rauchs Michel Rauchs

The Politics of Cash and CBDC (CBDC Series Part VI)

For technical and regulatory reasons, CBDC is unlikely to replicate the properties of physical cash – making it all the more important to preserve the latter. CBDC has begun as a technical discussion; now is the time to acknowledge its political dimension and correspondingly initiate a transparent decision process that involves society at large.

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Michel Rauchs Michel Rauchs

The High-Impact Scenario (CBDC Series Part V)

CBDC could naturally lead to a bottom-up full reserve banking system where money creation is an exclusive privilege of the state. Creeping centralisation would eventually spill over to the real economy as well, accidentally resulting in an economic system with suboptimal allocation of resources according to political agendas.

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Michel Rauchs Michel Rauchs

The Medium-Impact Scenario (CBDC Series Part IV)

CBDC gaining meaningful market share expands the central bank's grip over the monetary system, with significant implications for bank balance sheets, financial risk, and commercial bank funding. During a financial crisis, CBDC may become a flight-to-safety instrument and exacerbate the magnitude of bank runs, causing broader systemic instability.

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Michel Rauchs Michel Rauchs

The Low-Impact Scenario (CBDC Series Part III)

The magnitude of the power shift from the private to the public sector will depend on the design, implementation, and market reception of CBDC. Failure to gain meaningful usage will result in only marginal changes in the current monetary system, with a theoretical gain of influence over monetary policy being nullified by the current interest rate environment.

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Michel Rauchs Michel Rauchs

Thoughts on JPM Coin

tl;dr: JPM Coin is an internal accounting system for the settlement of institutional customer accounts. It's not a cryptocurrency nor a stablecoin, and the effective use of "blockchain" beyond its catalyst role remains unclear to date. However, it represents a long-overdue efficiency improvement in cross-border payments that may trigger further advances in core banking infrastructure.

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